Stock Talking

Sunday Options (12/13/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious

Are we in a bubble? The Impervious and I debate the question everyone is asking as the market again hovers around all-time highs. We talk about the IPO market and the crazy upward movements from offering prices for Airbnb, DoorDash and C3.ai. In industry specific news, we talk about the consequences of the $FEYE hack and the consequences for $CRWD, $NET and $OKTA. I make the case for two potential Stock Talking long-form recommendations that represent good value - $AZO and $FISV - and discuss what Disney's streaming announcements might mean for the stock. Sean offers two bull cases for mortgage originators ($RKT) and uranium ($UUUU, $CCJ), where prices actually are above 2018 & 19 levels. We take a look at rising expectations for inflation measured via treasuries and what that might mean for the market.

Sunday Options (12/6/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious

The Impervious and I are back to try to make sense of a market continuing to make all time highs. We review a disappointing non-farm payrolls report, the declining DXY and the implications of frothy multiple stocks being included in major indexes. Sean plays the role of bear as I do my best to defend the movie theater bull thesis in light of Warner Media’s announcement that all new 2021 titles will be released on HBO Max. I get into some of the history of AT&T under new CEO John Stankey’s leadership and why the company’s desire to compete with Netflix via HBO Max is relevant here. Sean presents some interesting trade opportunities in CLDR, DOCU, NET, ATVI and GLD. We close with our picks for next week’s edition of WallStars, our new DFS Stocks trading game. Contact us to be beta testers!

Diligent Dollar Part II: The Movie Theater Industry and National CineMedia (NCMI)

Diligent Dollar (https://diligent-dollar.com) is back to talk about National CineMedia ($NCMI) and the movie theater industry before and after COVID. Are theaters in secular decline? Are studios dismantling their relationships with theaters to move to Premium Video on Demand (PVOD)? Which of the major theater chains ($CNK, $AMC, Cineworld (Regal's parent company)) are facing bankruptcy risk and how would bankruptcies impact NCMI? How is the movie theater industry faring outside the US? Diligent answers all these questions and more. We explore NCMI's origin story and its competitive moat in movie advertising. Diligent breaks down the company's free cash flow potential and why he thinks the stock could be a multi-bagger. You can read more of Diligent at https://diligent-dollar.com/ and follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/DollarDiligent .

Sunday Options (11/22/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious

With the vaccine picture improving in clarity and the election outcome all but certain, Sean and I look forward to the market’s next obstacles. Bill Ackman shorts corporate credit and the Fed bemoans the cessation of backstop programs - the Impervious and I exchange takes. I double down on bullish views for back-to-work ($NCMI) and Sean throws in a bull case for some BTC-enabled names ($RIOT, $MARA). I learn from Sean a trading strategy to lock in gains while retaining upside. Finally, Sean introduces WallStars - our newly branded DFS stocks trading game.

Thursday Options (10/29/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious

With five days till Election Day, Sean and I weigh the strength of third quarter earnings against the uncertainty of the future. The Impervious and I talk $CROX, $AAPL, $AMZN and more Q3 calls. Is the market discounting strong fundamentals? We discuss how we expect stocks to trade in a variety of election outcomes. Sean offers some precious metals recommendations including $NEM. I offer another strong defense of Berkshire as Sean continues to dominate our $QQQ v. $BRK.B bet.

Wednesday Options (10/14/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious

The Impervious and I react to $FSLY's Q3 downguide and discuss potential market weakness after a nice run off the September lows. We discuss whether Fastly's less than stellar news will impact cloud favorites like $CRWD and $NET. Sean gives some third quarter earnings strategies and gold miner picks ($GDX, $NEM). We close with a spirited discussion of the merits of $BRK.B over $QQQ and the incredible $CROX story.

Brandon Quittem: Bridging the Gap Between Bitcoin and Equity Analysis

This conversation with Brandon Quittem made me completely rethink Bitcoin as an asset class and its role in traditional asset allocation. Brandon is a writer, speaker, entrepreneur and BTC enthusiast whose articles have been read by over two million people. Brandon covers BTC valuation models, excess energy from renewable resources and how they relate to mining economics, the Lightning Network, Jack Dorsey’s companies' role in the BTC ecosystem, the 2017 Bitcoin Cash fork and too many topics to list here. By the time we wrapped up this conversation, I felt able to view BTC from a traditional equity investor lens - there's a bull thesis here that has strengthened over time via BTC's expanding investor base and ecosystem. I had a blast talking to Brandon and hope you enjoy this conversation. If you’re looking to invest in Bitcoin, check out Swan Investing and sign up at the link  https://www.swanbitcoin.com/Quittem/ .

Diligent Dollar: Competitive Positioning, Free Cash Flow and Why a $YELP-$ANGI Merger Makes Sense

Diligent Dollar (https://diligent-dollar.com/) comes on to talk $TRUP, $AZO, $YELP, $ANGI, $FAST and $NVR. DD is one of the best financial blogs on the internet and stands out for high-quality analysis of names no one else is covering. Diligent discusses his process for forecasting future cash flows and finding high ROIC businesses. He discusses the advantages of a potential $ANGI-$YELP merger as well as which business he’d rather own. We discuss Diligent’s competitive series analysis (https://diligent-dollar.com/category/competitive-strategy-series/) and the reasons for the rise of $FAST, $NVR and $TRUP, as well as how some of those lessons might apply to $AZO. Overall, this was a great conversation and I highly recommend subscribing to Diligent’s blog for new posts.

Sunday Options (9/20/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious

Sean and I analyze tech's several week sell-off and whether we're in a secular bull market. The Impervious critiques my idea of selling puts to leg into the market and talks about the advantages of 30-45 days out for expiries. A little bit of macro talk - to what extent possible election surprises are priced into the market and the ongoing Fed put. Sean shares trade ideas on $CRWD, $SFIX, $KTOS and $VALE. And to end, a spirited discussion on $MCD and the success of Travis Scott as reason to believe Oracle and Walmart are winners on the TikTok deal.

Investing City's Methodology: Ryan Reeves on SaaS, Research Process and Competition

My guest today is Ryan Reeves, the founder and CEO of Investing City. Ryan is an amazing follow on Twitter (@investing_city) and I’m excited to release this interview. No one I follow reads more 10Ks and produces more high quality analysis on top tier businesses. We talk about Ryan’s research process, position sizing, evaluating expectations, re-rating drivers, processing quarterly results, churn as a key metric, SaaS pricing models and more. There are so many names covered in this pod - ROKU, FSLY, NET, CRM, U, AYX, GoodRx and more. I’m privileged to have Ryan as a guest and highly recommend giving this a listen!