Stock Talking

Sunday Options (4/25/2021): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious

The Impervious returns to swap takes on gold + gold miners, Tesla + FAANG upcoming earnings, inflation v. deflation, the crypto lending market and QQQ's year of outperformance versus Berkshire Hathaway.

Diligent Dollar Part III: Good Companies, Bad Balance Sheets

Diligent Dollar is back to explain how he finds opportunities in levered companies that scare away most equity investors. Diligent talks through several examples including Platform Specialty Products (now Element Solutions) to highlight scenarios where debt to EBITDA multiples don't tell the whole story. We discuss Diligent's Civeo ($CVEO) thesis (lodging and hospitality for mining) and dive into the company's de-leveraging story, potential to produce a 25%+ FCF yield and why CVEO could do well independent of commodity price movement. Diligent shares his experience trying to acquire a marina, his thoughts on the structural disadvantages of REITs, tailwinds for manufactured housing (Cavco - $CVCO, Skyline - $SKY) despite NIMBY concerns and more. I really enjoyed this conversation and highly recommend subscribing to the Diligent Dollar blog (https://diligent-dollar.com).

Phil Andrews: The Role of Cathie's Ark in the ARK Investing Community

Phil Andrews of Cathie's Ark returns for an awesome discussion on ARK and how the Cathie's Ark website and trading floor provide valuable data and commentary to the ARK community. Phil responds to the ARK bears and debunks some popular narratives on ARK’s exposure to a sell-off triggered by illiquidity. We discuss the best ARK portfolio holdings to buy during drawdowns and why Phil believes $ARKG is the ETF most well situated to thrive as ARK AUM grows. I ask Phil about the bull case for $TDOC, $BLI and a number of other names. Phil reviews new and upcoming features for the Cathie's Ark website (filters, timelines and plans for upcoming FDA release data). I get Phil’s reactions to ARK’s new positions in $DKNG and $TWTR.  We close with some questions from Twitter and Cathie’s Ark’s Trading Floor, including Phil’s takes on $NNDM, $BNGO, $PACB and dollar-cost averaging.

Cathie's Ark (https://cathiesark.com/) has been an indispensable resource for me as an investor in $ARKK and I highly recommend checking out the website, joining the Trading Floor community and signing up for email notifications (https://cathiesark.com/daily-trade-email).

President's Day Market Overview with The Impervious

The Impervious and I come together to talk about the market’s new all-time highs and the crush in implied volatility. For once, we both agree energy is well positioned to benefit from technical (potential short squeeze, high amount of options traded) and fundamental (supply constrained, demand growing) factors. Sean talks about opportunities in uranium, implied volatility, gold miners and more. I discuss recent changes in my own portfolio where the theme was sell low quality businesses and buy more of high quality businesses.

Emergency GameStop Episode

GameStop! The Impervious and I take stock of extreme volatility in $GME, $AMC and other favorites of the WSB crowd. How long could this phenomenon last? Sean crafts a generalized strategy for trading single digit price stocks with condensed option chains and gives recommendations for $GNUS, $XSPA and $AG.

Buys This Week: NTDOY and NCMI Updates

I bought both Nintendo (NTDOY) and National CineMedia (NCMI) this week and use this podcast to explain my thinking. I preview Nintendo's earnings ahead of its February 1st Q3 release and discuss why I think growth expectations are too low. Next, I react to the Wall Street Journal's recent article on National CineMedia and the revelation they've engaged lawyers to work with senior lenders. Should NCMI equity holders be concerned about the debt?

2020 Review and 2021 Predictions with The Impervious

The Impervious and I review our best and worst trades of 2020 and make bold predictions for 2021.

Phil Andrews: Cathie's Ark and Building Understanding from Data

My guest today is Phil Andrews, the creator of Cathie’s Ark (cathiesark.com). I use Cathie’s Ark almost daily to source investing ideas by looking at trade data from the ARK Invest ETFs. Phil has done an amazing job making this data understandable and actionable.

Phil gives the backstory behind Cathie's Ark and the underlying sources of data for the website. He explains the many reasons for changing fund compositions in ARKK, ARKW, ARKG, ARKF, including forced buying and selling of equities due to buys and sells of the ETF shares, potential limits around how much of public companies Cathie Wood and team are willing to own and risk limits ARK observes. Phil overviews the hidden risk in how buying or selling of ARK ETF shares can compound up moves or drawdowns.

I ask Phil about recent trends in the ARK ETFs and he reviews increases in TDOC across the funds (250%+ increase in ARKK in 2 months), selling out of ILMN after a questionable acquisition and more. Phil dives deep on genomics and the implications of AlphaFold on Google, which is now an ARKG holding. We review the top holdings in his PA (TSLA, OPEN, Bitcoin) and how it has been influenced by ARK.

Phil walks through some of the many features on Cathie’s Ark, including how to review portfolio trends, contributions over specific time periods to ETF returns, tracing a stock’s growth or decline in ARK ETFs, the Trading Floor and more. Importantly, Phil highlights why it’s important to him that Cathie’s Ark will always be free and the benefits of knowledge and transparency being spread on the internet.

This conversation was awesome and I’m excited to dig into many of the names Phil talked about. I strongly recommend checking out https://cathiesark.com, the trading floor at http://tradingfloor.cathiesark.com and the Cathie’s Ark Twitter feed at https://twitter.com/cathiesark for more insights on the ARK Investing ETFs.

Sunday Options (12/20/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious

Sean and I talk about the potential implications of the SolarWinds breach and how we are in the early innings of this developing story. We react to the in-podcast announcement of Congress agreeing to a $900 billion stimulus package and debate to what extent the market has priced in fiscal action. The Impervious breaks down friends of the pod $CRWD, $NET, $SDC and the banks. We also reflect on $TSLA's stunning $50 billion market cap move on Friday for a company with a $50 billion market cap only a few years ago.

Chris Seifel: FCF Drivers, CANSLIM, CrowdStrike and the AI Opportunity

Chris Seifel of Seifel Capital Management comes on to talk free cash flow in high growth companies, shortcomings in using P/S multiples, the CANSLIM method, why he is wary of investing in small caps, CrowdStrike’s incredible growth runway and artificial intelligence. Chris’s depth and breadth of knowledge on cyber security and AI - as well as how these opportunities distill down to specific companies and free cash flow growth - made this interview an awesome learning opportunity for me. We go deep on Chris’s process and how he evaluates his holdings during quarterly earnings and drawdowns. Chris overviews his investment thesis for CRWD (including updates on the Preempt acquisition and new Zero Trust initiatives) and a range of opportunities in AI, including ASML, TSM and MU. I highly recommend listening to this whole interview, but Chris’s explanation of ASML and their use of photolithography blew me away. His Twitter and newsletter are incredible resources I keep returning to - check out https://twitter.com/SeifelCapital and https://seifelcapital.com .